Given that I am currently tweaking the draft agenda for the annual Americas Com conference (this year: Rio de Janeiro, 31 June & 1 July), one of the lead stories in today's Global Mobile Daily is especially useful food for thought. GMD notes that the GSMA is urging Latin American regulators to relax spectrum caps which the Association feels to be hampering the development of mobile broadband services in the region.
According to a study commissioned for the GSMA, spectrum caps in Latin America are among the most restrictive in the world: a maximum of 40MHz is allowed per operator in Colombia, 50 MHz in Argentina, 60 MHz in Chile, 65 MHz in Mexico and 80 MHz in Brazil. This compared with over 300 MHz of spectrum available in most North American and European markets. Assuming this continues to be an inhibiting factor for the region's MNOs, I daresay it will be a major topic for discussion at the conference. I will encourage colleagues to consult with the good folks at 3G Americas in order to get a sense of how much discussion time is merited by this particular issues. At the event, 3G Americas President Chris Pearson will lead the usual Executive Briefing his organisation has traditionally offered to delegates.
20 Jan 2009
Informa bullish on mobile data during the economic downturn
During my time with Informa Telecoms & Media I have not had the opportunity to consult with Mark Newman, our Chief Research Officer, anything like a regularly as I would have liked. The last time I had cause to do so was in the lead-in to December's GSM>3G Middle East conference in Dubai, at which Mark was in the Chair, sharing the stage with heavy-hitters from the likes of Etisalat, Zain, Turkcell and Nawras. At that event, all of these companies made very positive noises about mobile data services in the context of the markets which they serve.
Yesterday, in Informa's telecoms.com blog, Mark reported a general feeling of optimism around mobile data worldwide. Mark began by noting the "widely held view that the mobile content sector is failing to live up to expectations, 3G has disappointed and mobile operators have thrown away an opportunity to develop a revenue stream that could ultimately surpass the voice business."
Mark feels that "if 2008 is remembered for one thing, it should be for being the year that this notion was dispelled. Until last year, the non-voice business was dominated by SMS. For a typical European operator, SMS accounted for up to 80% of non-voice revenues in previous years. But this figure has started to fall sharply. Operators such as Vodafone are seeing non-SMS services generating up to half of non-voice revenues. Investment in 3G - or 3.5G - is now generating payback."
While pointing out the erroneous nature of the idea that North America is a laggard in terms of mobile data adoption, Mark notes that Japan and South Korea continue to be the real hotbeds of enthusiasm for data services. This has been a well-worn truism for as long as I've been attending conferences and workshops themed around boosting the acceptance and profitability of mobile content, data and value-added services. I recall being asked to take over the running of a London conference about five years ago and hearing all kinds of actors in the mobile VAS value chain complaining about revenue sharing arrangements with operators and MNOs' 'walled garden' approaches. The participants were at least 90% European and content providers and aggregators were much better represented than network operators. Everyone seemed to be casting envious glances at their Japanese and Korean counterparts, speaking warmly about how the likes of NTT DoCoMo were enabling the growth of a healthy mobile content ecosystem.
Only last week, when I was asked to make a presentation on mobile social networking at the most recent Mobile Monday Istanbul meeting, I found myself referring constantly to the greater success of some of these services in the Far East. Quoting from an Informa Telecoms & Media report, I told the Turkish audience that according to a Sydney Morning Herald article published in December 2007, half of Japan’s top 10 works of fiction are now written on mobile handsets. These works, called keitai shousetsu’, each sells an average of 400,000 copies and are written entirely on cell phones complete with emoticons and common SMS abbreviations.
Today, according to Mark Newman, the ratio of prepaid subscribers to postpaid goes a long way toward accounting for the differences among markets in mobile content adoption and usage. Postpaid subscriptions account for 99% of all subs in South Korea, 94% in Japan and 90% in the US. Mark points out that these are the countries with the highest mobile data ARPUs.
Yesterday, in Informa's telecoms.com blog, Mark reported a general feeling of optimism around mobile data worldwide. Mark began by noting the "widely held view that the mobile content sector is failing to live up to expectations, 3G has disappointed and mobile operators have thrown away an opportunity to develop a revenue stream that could ultimately surpass the voice business."
Mark feels that "if 2008 is remembered for one thing, it should be for being the year that this notion was dispelled. Until last year, the non-voice business was dominated by SMS. For a typical European operator, SMS accounted for up to 80% of non-voice revenues in previous years. But this figure has started to fall sharply. Operators such as Vodafone are seeing non-SMS services generating up to half of non-voice revenues. Investment in 3G - or 3.5G - is now generating payback."
While pointing out the erroneous nature of the idea that North America is a laggard in terms of mobile data adoption, Mark notes that Japan and South Korea continue to be the real hotbeds of enthusiasm for data services. This has been a well-worn truism for as long as I've been attending conferences and workshops themed around boosting the acceptance and profitability of mobile content, data and value-added services. I recall being asked to take over the running of a London conference about five years ago and hearing all kinds of actors in the mobile VAS value chain complaining about revenue sharing arrangements with operators and MNOs' 'walled garden' approaches. The participants were at least 90% European and content providers and aggregators were much better represented than network operators. Everyone seemed to be casting envious glances at their Japanese and Korean counterparts, speaking warmly about how the likes of NTT DoCoMo were enabling the growth of a healthy mobile content ecosystem.
Only last week, when I was asked to make a presentation on mobile social networking at the most recent Mobile Monday Istanbul meeting, I found myself referring constantly to the greater success of some of these services in the Far East. Quoting from an Informa Telecoms & Media report, I told the Turkish audience that according to a Sydney Morning Herald article published in December 2007, half of Japan’s top 10 works of fiction are now written on mobile handsets. These works, called keitai shousetsu’, each sells an average of 400,000 copies and are written entirely on cell phones complete with emoticons and common SMS abbreviations.
Today, according to Mark Newman, the ratio of prepaid subscribers to postpaid goes a long way toward accounting for the differences among markets in mobile content adoption and usage. Postpaid subscriptions account for 99% of all subs in South Korea, 94% in Japan and 90% in the US. Mark points out that these are the countries with the highest mobile data ARPUs.
Overall, Mark feels that even if the most pessimistic scenarios for the economic downturn come to pass, it seems unlikely that the mobile content sector will stop growing. Mark points out that 2008 saw a switch to flat-rate and mobile Internet models and believes that 2009 will see this trend continue and will see the arrival of more-affordable mobile Internet devices. For Mark "the bigger uncertainty is whether mobile operators will accept a role as dumb pipes rather than continuing to invest in their own services and smart-pipe strategies. "
Today I should complete handing over my notes to colleagues who will be developing our annual Russia & CIS Com conference, set to take place in Moscow in early June. With the Russian MNOs having now deployed 3G networks in most major cities, our research respondents have expressed the desire to use the event to debate how best to accelerate the process of getting a return on these investments by encouraging customers to accept mobile data and content services.
19 Jan 2009
More on (mobile social) networking in Istanbul
Last week I had the great pleasure of visiting the shiny new Microsoft MEA office in Istanbul, which was the venue for this month's local Mobile Monday meeting. Part of the pleasure was being reminded of the warm hospitality I always experience when meeting telecoms people from Turkey. The pre-meeting drinks, nibbles and chatter session yielded lots of interesting new contacts. Among these were representatives of the country's three mobile operators and owners/directors of a number of value-added services companies. Mobile banking solutions seemed to be quite a well represented area so perhaps this is something set to gain traction in Turkey.
Ostensibly, I was there to speak on behalf of Informa Telecoms & Media, making a presentation on the theme of mobile social networking. This was drawn from a comprehensive report on that subject, an updated second edition of which is currently being prepared. With a 25-minute time slot, I was only able to offer a few of the ideas covered in the report. A number of those present were kind enough to indicate that they had found the presentation helpful. Judge for yourself. Natali Yeşilbahar, the Mobile Monday Istanbul organiser, has made the slides available here. If you want the notes which I used to provide examples and expanded comments, please let me know any time.
Mine was one of two speeches made that evening, the other being offered by Mehmet Arslantunalı, General Manager of Mobilife magazine, a telco sector publication in the local vernacular. Mehmet's presentation was also made in Turkish so I was not able to gain from it. Those of you who do understand that language are invited to have a look at the slides and fill me in on what I missed!
I understand that Microsoft is a new member of the roster of companies that have hosted Mobile Mobile Monday Istanbul meetings. I believe that the privilege usually falls to one or other of the MNOs - Turkcell, Avea or Vodafone. I am pleased that Informa Telecoms & Media will be joining this exalted company in April, at which time we will be providing the meeting facilities and laying on the catering. The venue will be the city's Mövenpick Hotel, which will also be the home of this year's Eurasia Com conference and exhibition - our annual gathering of senior telecoms people not only from Turkey but also from the CIS markets of the Caspian and Central Asian regions (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan etc.). Natali was kind enough to allow me drum up further local support for the event.
A number of the meetings which I arranged during the rest of my short stay should have a positive impact on the conference element of the Eurasia Com event. One which is very straightforward is the addition of a further speaker from Turkcell. Given the extensive coverage given to the issue of MVNOs possibly hitting the Turkish market in the near future, I am delighted to welcome Dr. Deniz Tunçalp to the panel of speaker. Deniz is in charge of the market-leading cellco's discussions with prospective MVNOs and as well as outlining his thoughts on barriers and opportunities for potential virtual operators in Turkey, he has offered his assistance with encouraging these companies to attend. It is my understanding that these players will come from an interesting mix of non-telecoms brands.
All in all, another useful and enjoyable trip to Istanbul - but I still haven't found time to do more than scratch the surface in terms of really enjoying the city's countless tourist sights, historical treasures and entertainment. Next time, I hope...
15 Jan 2009
(Mobile social) networking in Istanbul
Greetings from Istanbul. This evening I will be speaking at the January meeting of the local Mobile Monday chapter, sharing just a few of the ideas detailed in our (soon-to-be-updated) report on Mobile Social Networking. The organiser, Natali Yesilbahar (who works with B2B social software platform XING) tells me that services of this kind are not yet a commercial reality here in Turkey and that there is therefore likely to be a good level of interest in my short presentation. I only hope I am able to answer questions and contribute to discussions to the satisfaction of the group attending tonight. I understand this will include managers from this country's three mobile operators (Turkcell, Avea and Vodafone) as well as companies actives in the mobile VAS space, of which there seem to be a good number headquartered hereabouts.
Wearing my marketing hat, I hope that a consequence of attending this evening's meeting will be a locally raised awareness of our Eurasia Com conference and exhibition, which will take place here in Istanbul 31 March & 1 April. Opening with a Keynote Address from Turk Telekom CEO Dr Paul Doany, the event will gather telecoms execs from its host country and many more from the CIS markets of the Caspian and Central Asian regions.
Wearing my marketing hat, I hope that a consequence of attending this evening's meeting will be a locally raised awareness of our Eurasia Com conference and exhibition, which will take place here in Istanbul 31 March & 1 April. Opening with a Keynote Address from Turk Telekom CEO Dr Paul Doany, the event will gather telecoms execs from its host country and many more from the CIS markets of the Caspian and Central Asian regions.
7 Jan 2009
How (hard) will financial turmoil hit Latin American telecoms markets?
I am currently advising Sao Paolo-based colleagues about the topics which should form the basis of the conference agenda at this year's Americas Com event in Rio de Janeiro, which will take place 30 June & 1 July. It was therefore timely for me that two of the blogs linked from this one have (quite) recently taken up the theme of how far Latin America's telecoms markets will be affected by the economic crisis currently gripping us all.
The first of these commentators is Australia-based Paul Budde, who helped me with a project last year and whom I finally had the great pleasure of meeting here in London after much correspondence and many friendly phone conferences at some very unusual times of night. It became clear during our conversations, and from what I was told by contacts at telcos in Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific islands, that Paul is well-known figure on the telecoms scene in that part of the world. Paul moved mountains to arrange the presence of key people from several countries' telecoms/IT ministries at an industry gathering he chaired for me in Sydney. The feedback about his role in making this a really productive meeting was incredibly positive and Paul knows I remain in his debt. My only regret was that other priorities made it impossible for me to attend the event myself.
Closer to home, our very own Tammy Parker has thoughts on the same questions. Tammy is a Principal Analyst within Informa Telecoms & Media, where she manages the Mobile Americas Intelligence Centre, which provides thought leadership, news analysis, key metrics, forecasts and more regarding operators, service providers, vendors and trends involved in shaping the mobile communications industry across North America, Central and South America, and the Caribbean.
Better late than never, this week I stumbled upon Paul's blog entry of October 13th 2008, in which he discusses how the region's telcos are expected to fare in the near future.
Paul notes that in mid-September 2008, several Latin American governments were claiming that the US financial predicament would have no impact on Latin America, because after its recession of 2001-2003, the region had taken sufficiently strong economic and fiscal measures to avert the reoccurrence of such a crisis. He goes on to observe that this confidence quickly proved to be misplaced, given that in the first week of October, stock markets from Sao Paulo to Mexico City took a hit and national currencies slumped against the US dollar. According to Paul, following the stock exchange panic, the region’s heads of government drastically revised their position, expressing alarm at a situation that could devastate the economies of Latin America, which have been reaping for the past few years the rewards of high global demand for commodities. Paul does not believe the picture is entirely black, noting that the major Latin American economies have built up solid national reserves and that in its World Economic Outlook published in early October 2008, the IMF revised downward its previous forecasts for global economic growth. The revision, says Paul, is not too dire for Latin America, although the IMF warns that all forecasts are subject to change and that the outlook is highly uncertain.
Turning his attention to our sector, Paul believes that "to date, telecom companies appear to have dodged the worst of the crisis. For example, on 6 October, only two out of the 35 stocks listed on Mexico’s IPC managed to close higher, and they were both telecom stocks: Telmex rose 1.5%, while Carso Global Telecom gained 3.1%."
These companies are both controlled by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim. In the mobile segment, Paul observes, "his other major investment, pan-regional mobile giant América Móvil, pared its losses to finish 1% down, a far smaller loss than that experienced by most other companies.
Paul goes on to look back at the region's recession for 2001-2003, wondering how far the the lessons of that period might be applied to the current crisis. Paul notes that "at that time, the sector that suffered the most was cable television, while mobile telephony only slumped slightly. The fixed line market came to a halt and never recovered, as countries joined the global mobile substitution trend. The broadband market, still in its infancy, experienced a delay in growth that is still evident today, in that Latin American broadband penetration is lower than would be expected given the region’s other economic indicators."
Paul's view is that if the present financial crisis deepens, the telecom services worst affected are likely to be those that provide entertainment, such as pay TV, digital media, and non-corporate mobile data services. Paul is quite bullish about mobile telephony, stating that it has become such an essential facility that it is likely to continue growing, though at a reduced rate.
Tammy's view, as expressed in a November blog entry, is that "slowing growth... will logically affect mobile operators in the region", and she notes that "Merrill Lynch recently predicted that mobile subscription growth in Latin America would remain steady in coming months but said mobile ARPUs could fall on average 6% in local currency in 2009." According to Tammy, the firm said it does not see Latin American operators cutting OPEX or CAPEX because of funding needs. I draw encouragement from this last point. A big feature of our events is the business of matchmaking between operators and vendors. I will naturally be encouraging our sales guys to flag up this relatively positive sentiment about operators' technology spending.
Paul Budde feels that broadband development will be more than ever dependant on government and regulatory efforts, and hopes that "the lessons learned from the disaster of unfettered speculation may lead to a more methodical and far-sighted approach to telecom investment, with a view to public wellbeing such as E-health, E-education, E-government, and other social services."
With this in mind, we will be working harder than ever to encourage the region's regulators and relevant government departments to weigh into the discussions at Americas Com in 2009.
The first of these commentators is Australia-based Paul Budde, who helped me with a project last year and whom I finally had the great pleasure of meeting here in London after much correspondence and many friendly phone conferences at some very unusual times of night. It became clear during our conversations, and from what I was told by contacts at telcos in Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific islands, that Paul is well-known figure on the telecoms scene in that part of the world. Paul moved mountains to arrange the presence of key people from several countries' telecoms/IT ministries at an industry gathering he chaired for me in Sydney. The feedback about his role in making this a really productive meeting was incredibly positive and Paul knows I remain in his debt. My only regret was that other priorities made it impossible for me to attend the event myself.
Closer to home, our very own Tammy Parker has thoughts on the same questions. Tammy is a Principal Analyst within Informa Telecoms & Media, where she manages the Mobile Americas Intelligence Centre, which provides thought leadership, news analysis, key metrics, forecasts and more regarding operators, service providers, vendors and trends involved in shaping the mobile communications industry across North America, Central and South America, and the Caribbean.
Better late than never, this week I stumbled upon Paul's blog entry of October 13th 2008, in which he discusses how the region's telcos are expected to fare in the near future.
Paul notes that in mid-September 2008, several Latin American governments were claiming that the US financial predicament would have no impact on Latin America, because after its recession of 2001-2003, the region had taken sufficiently strong economic and fiscal measures to avert the reoccurrence of such a crisis. He goes on to observe that this confidence quickly proved to be misplaced, given that in the first week of October, stock markets from Sao Paulo to Mexico City took a hit and national currencies slumped against the US dollar. According to Paul, following the stock exchange panic, the region’s heads of government drastically revised their position, expressing alarm at a situation that could devastate the economies of Latin America, which have been reaping for the past few years the rewards of high global demand for commodities. Paul does not believe the picture is entirely black, noting that the major Latin American economies have built up solid national reserves and that in its World Economic Outlook published in early October 2008, the IMF revised downward its previous forecasts for global economic growth. The revision, says Paul, is not too dire for Latin America, although the IMF warns that all forecasts are subject to change and that the outlook is highly uncertain.
Turning his attention to our sector, Paul believes that "to date, telecom companies appear to have dodged the worst of the crisis. For example, on 6 October, only two out of the 35 stocks listed on Mexico’s IPC managed to close higher, and they were both telecom stocks: Telmex rose 1.5%, while Carso Global Telecom gained 3.1%."
These companies are both controlled by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim. In the mobile segment, Paul observes, "his other major investment, pan-regional mobile giant América Móvil, pared its losses to finish 1% down, a far smaller loss than that experienced by most other companies.
Paul goes on to look back at the region's recession for 2001-2003, wondering how far the the lessons of that period might be applied to the current crisis. Paul notes that "at that time, the sector that suffered the most was cable television, while mobile telephony only slumped slightly. The fixed line market came to a halt and never recovered, as countries joined the global mobile substitution trend. The broadband market, still in its infancy, experienced a delay in growth that is still evident today, in that Latin American broadband penetration is lower than would be expected given the region’s other economic indicators."
Paul's view is that if the present financial crisis deepens, the telecom services worst affected are likely to be those that provide entertainment, such as pay TV, digital media, and non-corporate mobile data services. Paul is quite bullish about mobile telephony, stating that it has become such an essential facility that it is likely to continue growing, though at a reduced rate.
Tammy's view, as expressed in a November blog entry, is that "slowing growth... will logically affect mobile operators in the region", and she notes that "Merrill Lynch recently predicted that mobile subscription growth in Latin America would remain steady in coming months but said mobile ARPUs could fall on average 6% in local currency in 2009." According to Tammy, the firm said it does not see Latin American operators cutting OPEX or CAPEX because of funding needs. I draw encouragement from this last point. A big feature of our events is the business of matchmaking between operators and vendors. I will naturally be encouraging our sales guys to flag up this relatively positive sentiment about operators' technology spending.
Paul Budde feels that broadband development will be more than ever dependant on government and regulatory efforts, and hopes that "the lessons learned from the disaster of unfettered speculation may lead to a more methodical and far-sighted approach to telecom investment, with a view to public wellbeing such as E-health, E-education, E-government, and other social services."
With this in mind, we will be working harder than ever to encourage the region's regulators and relevant government departments to weigh into the discussions at Americas Com in 2009.
6 Jan 2009
MNP remains a hot topic across a number of regions
Late last month, I received the notes put together by the Sao Paolo-based research team who have been busily preparing for this year's Americas Com event (30 June & 1 July, Rio de Janeiro). My Brazilian colleagues have been asking which hot topics should form the basis of the conference agenda, directing their questions to managers and strategists from telcos across Latin America.
One suggestion from respondents is that we include a round table session on the practicalities of implementing Mobile Number Portability (MNP). MNP was officially launched in Mexico in July last year, following a number of delays. In Honduras, the national telecoms regulator Conatel launched a public consultation on MNP in September, initially allowing operators Tigo, Claro, Hondutel and new entrant Digicel to consider proposals and offer comments. As of September 2008, Conatel had not yet made public a timetable for MNP. In the region's largest market, Brazil, the regulatory agency required the country's MNOs to go live with MNP by September 1 2008.
The roundtable suggestion seems to be a good one - we could have the optimum mix of participants with recent experience of MNP and others with a pressing need to anticipate the business and technical challenges.
Meanwhile, MNP appears to be causing some degree of controversy in India. Yesterday's Global Mobile Daily had news of the country's Department of Telecommunications (DoT) planning to begin accepting bids from applicants hoping to act as MNP clearing houses by mid-January. Bids are due to be opened on February 5th, according to local reports. The GMD piece goes on to say that "the DoT still faces key questions before it introduces MNP, most notably whether CDMA
operators will be able to automatically transfer their subscribers across to GSM services, a move strongly opposed by GSM players who say that CDMA players will transfer subs en masse to try and secure additional GSM spectrum."
I imagine that one CDMA player that could seek to gain from this alleged wheeze would be Reliance, which has finally launched its GSM services in the blue-chip market of Mumbai and has launched into the market with an aggressively priced plan offering subs free airtime worth NR10 S$0.21) per day for the first 90 days of a new subscribers' contract after an initial charge of just INR25. Reliance is offering new GSM subs local call rates of INR0.01 per minute and STD call ates of INR1.50 per minute with subs able to top up their accounts with prepaid packs offering NR10 to INR500 of value once they have used their daily free allowance. In addition, Reliance SM subs will get free unlimited talk time on the company's GSM and CDMA networks between 2200 and 0600 throughout Mumbai, Goa and Maharashtra. Reliance says it will be announcing additional prepaid tariff plans over the next three months.
In case you're surprised by the amount of detail in the above paragraph, I should admit to having grabbed most of it from the same edition of Global Mobile Daily. I won't pretend suddenly to have become an expert on the Indian mobile scene. That said, I did enjoy a (too) short stint in charge of our India & South Asia event and it was with regret that I ceded the territory to a colleague as part of a reorganisation in the Com World Series team last year. It was an exciting part of the world in which to make contacts and do business and I maintain an interest in developments there. For other readers who can say the same, I do recommend attending this year's India & South Asia Com, held once again in Mumbai - 12-13 May are the dates for your diary.
One suggestion from respondents is that we include a round table session on the practicalities of implementing Mobile Number Portability (MNP). MNP was officially launched in Mexico in July last year, following a number of delays. In Honduras, the national telecoms regulator Conatel launched a public consultation on MNP in September, initially allowing operators Tigo, Claro, Hondutel and new entrant Digicel to consider proposals and offer comments. As of September 2008, Conatel had not yet made public a timetable for MNP. In the region's largest market, Brazil, the regulatory agency required the country's MNOs to go live with MNP by September 1 2008.
The roundtable suggestion seems to be a good one - we could have the optimum mix of participants with recent experience of MNP and others with a pressing need to anticipate the business and technical challenges.
Meanwhile, MNP appears to be causing some degree of controversy in India. Yesterday's Global Mobile Daily had news of the country's Department of Telecommunications (DoT) planning to begin accepting bids from applicants hoping to act as MNP clearing houses by mid-January. Bids are due to be opened on February 5th, according to local reports. The GMD piece goes on to say that "the DoT still faces key questions before it introduces MNP, most notably whether CDMA
operators will be able to automatically transfer their subscribers across to GSM services, a move strongly opposed by GSM players who say that CDMA players will transfer subs en masse to try and secure additional GSM spectrum."
I imagine that one CDMA player that could seek to gain from this alleged wheeze would be Reliance, which has finally launched its GSM services in the blue-chip market of Mumbai and has launched into the market with an aggressively priced plan offering subs free airtime worth NR10 S$0.21) per day for the first 90 days of a new subscribers' contract after an initial charge of just INR25. Reliance is offering new GSM subs local call rates of INR0.01 per minute and STD call ates of INR1.50 per minute with subs able to top up their accounts with prepaid packs offering NR10 to INR500 of value once they have used their daily free allowance. In addition, Reliance SM subs will get free unlimited talk time on the company's GSM and CDMA networks between 2200 and 0600 throughout Mumbai, Goa and Maharashtra. Reliance says it will be announcing additional prepaid tariff plans over the next three months.
In case you're surprised by the amount of detail in the above paragraph, I should admit to having grabbed most of it from the same edition of Global Mobile Daily. I won't pretend suddenly to have become an expert on the Indian mobile scene. That said, I did enjoy a (too) short stint in charge of our India & South Asia event and it was with regret that I ceded the territory to a colleague as part of a reorganisation in the Com World Series team last year. It was an exciting part of the world in which to make contacts and do business and I maintain an interest in developments there. For other readers who can say the same, I do recommend attending this year's India & South Asia Com, held once again in Mumbai - 12-13 May are the dates for your diary.
5 Jan 2009
Paltel services hit by military action in Gaza
In my final post of 2008, I praised the determined spirit of the many telecoms people I've met from markets notable for political turmoil and other major challenges. I noted how we at the Com World Series had experienced late changes of venue and dates for events in Kenya and India, the former as a result of unrest, the latter due to the terrorist attacks on Mumbai.
It would therefore be refreshing to enter the new year without reading about how the telecoms sector is coping in some trouble spot. Alas, today's newsletter from TelecomPaper comes with word of how "Paltel Group, the provider of fixed and mobile telecommunications in the Palestinian territories, has warned that Gaza could be disconnected from the outside world as a result of the Israeli air strikes and ground assault in Gaza." The report says that currently, 90% percent of the mobile service network is down, in addition to a 'huge' number of fixed lines, either due to direct damage or because of the loss of electricity.
It would therefore be refreshing to enter the new year without reading about how the telecoms sector is coping in some trouble spot. Alas, today's newsletter from TelecomPaper comes with word of how "Paltel Group, the provider of fixed and mobile telecommunications in the Palestinian territories, has warned that Gaza could be disconnected from the outside world as a result of the Israeli air strikes and ground assault in Gaza." The report says that currently, 90% percent of the mobile service network is down, in addition to a 'huge' number of fixed lines, either due to direct damage or because of the loss of electricity.
3 Jan 2009
A timely take on mobile social networking
At Informa Telecoms & Media, my task of producing telecoms sector discussion/networking events is made much easier by being able to seek the input of our own industry analysts and by my having a wealth of ITM report products and subscription research services at my fingertips. Prior to joining Informa, I worked for companies who created useful and profitable conferences without the benefit of having such resources in-house. Frankly, this meant I had to beg and borrow information and insights in order to get my job done (I won't admit to stealing). During that time, I found some analysts to be particularly insightful.
One such was Dean Bubley, whose blog is linked from this one. The motto of Dean's mobile sector advisory business is "don't assume" and he asserts that "the technology industry - and its customers and investors - have accepted too readily nebulous, unsubstantiated and unchallenged predictions of self-appointed 'experts' and pundits." Dean's blog entries are written in just this spirit. Most recently, he has turned his attention to mobile social networking.
This was very timely for me, given that I spent a large chunk of yesterday working on a presentation on exactly this subject. This will be delivered on January 15th at the next Mobile Monday Istanbul meeting, at which I was invited to speak by the local organiser, Natali Yeşilbahar. While I am considering quoting Dean's comments to spice things up a little, most of my slides are drawn from the Informa Telecoms & Media 'Mobile Social Networking: Communities and Content on the Move'.
While I am delighted to be sharing some of our thoughts on this area, I was also motivated to travel to Turkey for the meeting by the prospect of being able to drum up local support for our Eurasia Com event, which will take place in the same city 31 March & 1 April. The Eurasia Com speaker panel is drawn from all over the Caspian region and Central Asia, with most of the former Soviet republics well represented. I have a great team in place to ensure that good numbers of delegates from these markets also attend, but I am keen to make sure we do not neglect the matter of marketing the event very actively to telcos in its host country. Hence my keenness to spend some time in Istanbul this month. I am looking forward to this first overseas trip of 2009. I'd better finish my presentation this weekend...
One such was Dean Bubley, whose blog is linked from this one. The motto of Dean's mobile sector advisory business is "don't assume" and he asserts that "the technology industry - and its customers and investors - have accepted too readily nebulous, unsubstantiated and unchallenged predictions of self-appointed 'experts' and pundits." Dean's blog entries are written in just this spirit. Most recently, he has turned his attention to mobile social networking.
This was very timely for me, given that I spent a large chunk of yesterday working on a presentation on exactly this subject. This will be delivered on January 15th at the next Mobile Monday Istanbul meeting, at which I was invited to speak by the local organiser, Natali Yeşilbahar. While I am considering quoting Dean's comments to spice things up a little, most of my slides are drawn from the Informa Telecoms & Media 'Mobile Social Networking: Communities and Content on the Move'.
While I am delighted to be sharing some of our thoughts on this area, I was also motivated to travel to Turkey for the meeting by the prospect of being able to drum up local support for our Eurasia Com event, which will take place in the same city 31 March & 1 April. The Eurasia Com speaker panel is drawn from all over the Caspian region and Central Asia, with most of the former Soviet republics well represented. I have a great team in place to ensure that good numbers of delegates from these markets also attend, but I am keen to make sure we do not neglect the matter of marketing the event very actively to telcos in its host country. Hence my keenness to spend some time in Istanbul this month. I am looking forward to this first overseas trip of 2009. I'd better finish my presentation this weekend...
2 Jan 2009
Russia's MTS brand to expand beyond CIS footprint
The new year finds me fully focused on preparations for our Russia/CIS Com event in Moscow (2-3 June 2009). Having conducted primary research in December, we will now be concentrating on making sure that the region's major telcos are represented at a high level at this year's gathering. While doing this, I naturally find my eye drawn to stories from Russia when reviewing the various telecoms news sources.
One such, from Cellular News, concerns the planned entry of Russia's MTS brand (mobile market leader with 33.85% of subs according to WCIS) into India. The Cellular News piece notes that "Shyam Telelink, which is controlled by Russia's Sistema has announced plans to use the brand-name of the Russian mobile network operator, MTS in the Indian market. MTS is itself 52.8% majority-owned by Sistema."
The piece continues: "Sistema guaranteed US$520 million of the total US$630 million that Shyam Telelink paid for obtaining its operating licenses. The company recently used a call-option to increase its shareholding in India's Shyam Telelink from 51% to 72% - just shy of the 74% which is permitted under Indian laws."
With this in mind, we will look to encourage Mr Oleg Raspopov, Director of the MTS Foreign Subsidiaries Business Unit to attend our India & South Asia Com event inMumbai in May. Mr Raspopov is already confirmed as a speaker at the event which covers the markets in his home country's most obvious and immediate sphere of influence, the former Soviet republics of Central Asia and the Caspian region. So I look foward to meeting him at Eurasia Com 2009, March 31 & April 1 in Istanbul.
One such, from Cellular News, concerns the planned entry of Russia's MTS brand (mobile market leader with 33.85% of subs according to WCIS) into India. The Cellular News piece notes that "Shyam Telelink, which is controlled by Russia's Sistema has announced plans to use the brand-name of the Russian mobile network operator, MTS in the Indian market. MTS is itself 52.8% majority-owned by Sistema."
The piece continues: "Sistema guaranteed US$520 million of the total US$630 million that Shyam Telelink paid for obtaining its operating licenses. The company recently used a call-option to increase its shareholding in India's Shyam Telelink from 51% to 72% - just shy of the 74% which is permitted under Indian laws."
With this in mind, we will look to encourage Mr Oleg Raspopov, Director of the MTS Foreign Subsidiaries Business Unit to attend our India & South Asia Com event inMumbai in May. Mr Raspopov is already confirmed as a speaker at the event which covers the markets in his home country's most obvious and immediate sphere of influence, the former Soviet republics of Central Asia and the Caspian region. So I look foward to meeting him at Eurasia Com 2009, March 31 & April 1 in Istanbul.
31 Dec 2008
2008: meeting the challenges; 2009: more of the same
It's probably not very hard to work out that one reason for my writing this blog is to raise the profile of our Com World Series suite of telecoms sector discussion/networking/exhibition events. However, were I to do nothing more than copy text from our marketing materials and paste it here, I daresay I would get bored even faster than anyone reading these entries. For me at least, it's been fun to look out for telecoms-related news and then relate it to accounts of the people we meet and the things we hear while creating and attending these gatherings.
Reading back over my posts, I do notice that the need to promote our conferences seems to lead to my adopting a fairly optimistic tone when describing developments in the emerging markets in which we, our delegates and sponsors/exhibitors do business.
I make no excuses for this. A big part of my team's work is to keep reminding telecoms tech vendors of the technology requirements of operators in higher growth markets. We then strive to persuade the vendors that two days at a Com World Series show, meeting representatives of telcos from all over the region it serves, represents a time-efficient and cost-effective route to market. It therefore comes naturally to us to be bullish about growth prospects in the parts of the world in which we connect vendors with their customers and prospective customers.
However, in order to do this, I don't believe we have to misrepresent the positive buzz we experience in our conference rooms and exhibition areas. As recently as Saturday last week, I noted the optimism expressed by speakers at this month's Middle East region Com World Series event in Dubai.
However, it would be remiss of me not to acknowledge that this has been a challenging year for many of the people with whom we engage worldwide. If I were to confine my reading to telecoms industry news sources, I might be seduced into thinking that the countries and regions in which our friends and partners work are places typified by glad tidings of subscriber growth and market liberalisation. Of course, it's not possible to keep an eye on these parts of the world without getting a wider sense of what life there is really like. By talking with telecoms people from around the world, I am fortunate enough to hear from primary sources about the more difficult aspects of living and working in their various home (and adopted) countries. This adds colour and detail to the items I see on the TV news. More importantly, I get to see sensible people who go about their business very effectively in challenging environments. Further, the efforts of these people are combining to catalyse positive change - I am thinking in terms of things like:
A news item which resonated for me last week was one picked up by myriad telecoms blogs and news portals, orginiating, I believe from this Reuters report. This was widely covered, so I won't repeat every detail here. To summarise, the story concerns a Nokia store in India being attacked by protestors enraged by the fact that the handset maker's mapping software shows Indian-claimed Kashmir as being within the borders of Pakistan. I was immediately reminded of a similar problem experienced by the Com World Series team. Some time ago, brochures were designed to promote our annual India & South Asia region event. One graphic element of the brochure was a map of the region from which delegates were to be gathered. The designer unwittingly committed much the same faux pas with regard to Kashmir as Nokia's mappers seem to have done. A contact in India was kind enough to point this out before the brochures were put in the mail - but once they had been printed... you live and learn...
Last week's Reuters story notes that "political sensitivities are an increasing problem for map making software vendors - such as how to deal with disputed borders or even national claims on areas such as Taiwan or Cyprus", going on to add that "back in 2001, Panasonic had a 12 month ban import imposed on it for selling phones in China which listed Taiwan as a separate country on the internal phonebook."
Our business has faced more serious and more costly problems than that in 2008. For example, the 2009 iteration of the India & South Asia conference, which was meant to take place early in the new year, has been pushed back to May as a result of the recent terrorist attack on Mumbai, the host city for the event. This is not without precedent. Earlier this year, our East Africa Com event was shifted from Nairobi to Dar es Salaam as a result of the unrest in Kenya following on from the disputed election results of December 2007.
On my own travels, I was lucky enough to spend a couple of weeks roaming around South America this year, working to boost attendance at our annual Americas Com event. One stop on the tour was Bolivia, where I visited operators in two cities, Santa Cruz and Cochabamba. In both of these, we could not fail to notice signs of the differences over the exploitation of energy resources which underlie recurring political crises. My understanding is that there exists a resultant desire for greater autonomy for some of the country's regions. We saw a demonstration in one city and plenty of related grafitti in the other.
These observations notwithstanding, I am choosing to face 2009 with determination to overcome any obstacles to my own aims which created by economic turmoil and political conditions. This is made easier by the great spirit and good fellowship I find among many, many telecoms people worldwide who face far greater levels of challenge than I or my team ever have to detal with. On that note, I wish you all a Happy New Year.
Reading back over my posts, I do notice that the need to promote our conferences seems to lead to my adopting a fairly optimistic tone when describing developments in the emerging markets in which we, our delegates and sponsors/exhibitors do business.
I make no excuses for this. A big part of my team's work is to keep reminding telecoms tech vendors of the technology requirements of operators in higher growth markets. We then strive to persuade the vendors that two days at a Com World Series show, meeting representatives of telcos from all over the region it serves, represents a time-efficient and cost-effective route to market. It therefore comes naturally to us to be bullish about growth prospects in the parts of the world in which we connect vendors with their customers and prospective customers.
However, in order to do this, I don't believe we have to misrepresent the positive buzz we experience in our conference rooms and exhibition areas. As recently as Saturday last week, I noted the optimism expressed by speakers at this month's Middle East region Com World Series event in Dubai.
However, it would be remiss of me not to acknowledge that this has been a challenging year for many of the people with whom we engage worldwide. If I were to confine my reading to telecoms industry news sources, I might be seduced into thinking that the countries and regions in which our friends and partners work are places typified by glad tidings of subscriber growth and market liberalisation. Of course, it's not possible to keep an eye on these parts of the world without getting a wider sense of what life there is really like. By talking with telecoms people from around the world, I am fortunate enough to hear from primary sources about the more difficult aspects of living and working in their various home (and adopted) countries. This adds colour and detail to the items I see on the TV news. More importantly, I get to see sensible people who go about their business very effectively in challenging environments. Further, the efforts of these people are combining to catalyse positive change - I am thinking in terms of things like:
- how telecoms services reaching the world's less advantaged people quickly improves and enriches their lives
- microfinance initiatives, sachet pricing and other measures designed to make services more affordable
- green power technologies and innovative backhaul solutions designed to get services into remote and often impoverished areas
A news item which resonated for me last week was one picked up by myriad telecoms blogs and news portals, orginiating, I believe from this Reuters report. This was widely covered, so I won't repeat every detail here. To summarise, the story concerns a Nokia store in India being attacked by protestors enraged by the fact that the handset maker's mapping software shows Indian-claimed Kashmir as being within the borders of Pakistan. I was immediately reminded of a similar problem experienced by the Com World Series team. Some time ago, brochures were designed to promote our annual India & South Asia region event. One graphic element of the brochure was a map of the region from which delegates were to be gathered. The designer unwittingly committed much the same faux pas with regard to Kashmir as Nokia's mappers seem to have done. A contact in India was kind enough to point this out before the brochures were put in the mail - but once they had been printed... you live and learn...
Last week's Reuters story notes that "political sensitivities are an increasing problem for map making software vendors - such as how to deal with disputed borders or even national claims on areas such as Taiwan or Cyprus", going on to add that "back in 2001, Panasonic had a 12 month ban import imposed on it for selling phones in China which listed Taiwan as a separate country on the internal phonebook."
Our business has faced more serious and more costly problems than that in 2008. For example, the 2009 iteration of the India & South Asia conference, which was meant to take place early in the new year, has been pushed back to May as a result of the recent terrorist attack on Mumbai, the host city for the event. This is not without precedent. Earlier this year, our East Africa Com event was shifted from Nairobi to Dar es Salaam as a result of the unrest in Kenya following on from the disputed election results of December 2007.
On my own travels, I was lucky enough to spend a couple of weeks roaming around South America this year, working to boost attendance at our annual Americas Com event. One stop on the tour was Bolivia, where I visited operators in two cities, Santa Cruz and Cochabamba. In both of these, we could not fail to notice signs of the differences over the exploitation of energy resources which underlie recurring political crises. My understanding is that there exists a resultant desire for greater autonomy for some of the country's regions. We saw a demonstration in one city and plenty of related grafitti in the other.
These observations notwithstanding, I am choosing to face 2009 with determination to overcome any obstacles to my own aims which created by economic turmoil and political conditions. This is made easier by the great spirit and good fellowship I find among many, many telecoms people worldwide who face far greater levels of challenge than I or my team ever have to detal with. On that note, I wish you all a Happy New Year.
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