Turk Telekom to grow business into Macedonia?

Looking back over some of the stories which popped up while I was away on holiday, I noticed that Global Mobile Daily picked up news of the Turkish incumbent fixed-line operator's interest in acquiring the 2nd-placed MNO in the small market of Macedonia (population approx 2 million). I am not clear to what extent any new owner (other interested parties seem to include Telekom Austria and Telekom Slovenije) would be able to grow the business. In addition to the Balkan country being a market of limited size, it is one for which our WCIS reports mobile penetration as 112.17% as of September 2008. Moreover, first-placed T-Mobile has established a commanding lead in terms of market share. According to WCIS, the Deutsche Telekom-aligned cellco owns 67.88% of subscriptions versus market shares of 32.13% and 12.16% for Cosmofon and VIP respectively.

VIP is part of the mobilkom austria group, itself a subsidiary of Telekom Austria - so if the Austrian incumbent's reported interest in Cosmofon is for real, I would assume that they would be thinking in terms of consolidating the Macedonian market down to two players.

Cosmofon's current owner is the Cosmote group, a company controlled by Greek incumbent carrier OTE. Assuming that the Greek group welcomes the interest being shown in its Macedonian outpost, this seems to represent another retreat from an East European market, OTE having not long quit Armenia. OTE sold its interest in Armentel, that country's then-monopolist wireline carrier (and associated mobile business) to Vimpelcom of Russia in late 2006.

If the Cosmofon story has played out by the end of March, and if Turk Telekom prevails, I daresay delegates at our Eurasia Com event in Istanbul will be keen to ask the company's CEO Dr. Paul Doany where the acquisition fits into his broader strategy.

Orange to enter Armenian market?

While conducting our research into developments across the Caspian Sea and Central Asia regions, we've dug out some interesting nuggets of information and opinion from a number of the individual markets concerned. Expect to see all of this reflected in the theme of the discussions at our annual Eurasia Com conference in Istanbul, 31st March & 1st April 2009.

One country we've found particularly fruitful in terms of research respondents is Armenia. One respondent there seems quite confident that the country's mobile market will be joined by a new player in the near future and that the new entrant will be Orange. The France Telecom cellular brand is not a total stranger to former Soviet territory, having established a foothold in Moldova, via the 2007 rebranding of Voxtel. Our friend in Armenia also felt that the entrant is likely to deploy WiMAX in additon to a GSM/W-CDMA network.

Armenia, home to fewer than 3.5 million people, is not a huge market to split between three mobile operators. In the context of the region around it, the country has also been quite well penetrated by the existing two MNOs, one of which is a part of the MTS empire. The other, Armentel (now branded Beeline) is the incumbent fixed-line operator as well as offering mobile services. Beeline, a well-known name across CIS markets, is the brand of the company's new owners, Vimpelcom of Russia.

I wonder, therefore, what any new entrant will be planning in terms of ways to grab market share from these two established players.