Turk Telekom to grow business into Macedonia?

Looking back over some of the stories which popped up while I was away on holiday, I noticed that Global Mobile Daily picked up news of the Turkish incumbent fixed-line operator's interest in acquiring the 2nd-placed MNO in the small market of Macedonia (population approx 2 million). I am not clear to what extent any new owner (other interested parties seem to include Telekom Austria and Telekom Slovenije) would be able to grow the business. In addition to the Balkan country being a market of limited size, it is one for which our WCIS reports mobile penetration as 112.17% as of September 2008. Moreover, first-placed T-Mobile has established a commanding lead in terms of market share. According to WCIS, the Deutsche Telekom-aligned cellco owns 67.88% of subscriptions versus market shares of 32.13% and 12.16% for Cosmofon and VIP respectively.

VIP is part of the mobilkom austria group, itself a subsidiary of Telekom Austria - so if the Austrian incumbent's reported interest in Cosmofon is for real, I would assume that they would be thinking in terms of consolidating the Macedonian market down to two players.

Cosmofon's current owner is the Cosmote group, a company controlled by Greek incumbent carrier OTE. Assuming that the Greek group welcomes the interest being shown in its Macedonian outpost, this seems to represent another retreat from an East European market, OTE having not long quit Armenia. OTE sold its interest in Armentel, that country's then-monopolist wireline carrier (and associated mobile business) to Vimpelcom of Russia in late 2006.

If the Cosmofon story has played out by the end of March, and if Turk Telekom prevails, I daresay delegates at our Eurasia Com event in Istanbul will be keen to ask the company's CEO Dr. Paul Doany where the acquisition fits into his broader strategy.

Turkish Government moves to stimulate internet, mobile internet development

Today's Global Mobile Daily has news of a helpful move on the part of the Turkish Government, welcomed by the country's leading cellco Turkcell, controlled by Çukurova Group, a leading business conglomerate with diverse interests in numerous industries.

Turkey's Ministry of Finance has announced a reduction in the Special Communication Tax on mobile internet from 25% to 5% and on fixed internet from 15% to 5%. “We welcome the equalization of mobile and fixed internet taxation. We evaluate this decision of our government as a very positive development for both consumers and the telecommunication
industry.” Turkcell said it welcomed the decision as an “important step a few days ahead of the 3G tender.”

Anything likely to stimulate the telecoms market in Turkey is good news for us as we near the final stages of assembling the speaker panel for our annual Eurasia Com conference in Istanbul. I wonder if any of the CIS nations represented at the event by their telecoms ministers will be inspired by the Turkish example and consider similar measures. To date, we have confirmed ministerial delegates from Armenia and Tajikistan. We are working hard on adding to that list.

Eurasia Com congress boosted by Ministerial support

Today I was delighted to receive a fax from the Ministry of Transport and Communication of the Republic of Armenia, signed by Mr Vruyr Arakelyan, the Deputy Minister whose responsibilities cover the the telecoms sector. In the message, Mr Arakelyan confirms that he will be joining us at the 5th annual Eurasia Com conference in Istanbul, 31 March & 1 April. Mr Arakelyan will be making a speech on recent developments and investment opportunities in the field of communications in Armenia. This is a welcome boost as we seek to raise further the profile and broaden the audience of this event.

Eurasia Com is quickly evolving beyond its roots as purely a meeting of mobile industry executives from the Caspian and Central Asia regions. Shifting the event from Almaty, Kazakhstan to Istanbul back in 2007 massively increased the size of the audience. Transport links were more favourable and it proved quite straightforward to create a conference of interest to delegates from CIS markets and the new host country.

In 2008, we began to diversify more actively in terms of the kinds of service provider represented, i.e. appealing to wireline carriers, WLL operators etc. in addition to the loyal audience from the mobile space. Now, in time for the 2009 event, we are making great strides in terms of reaching out to government agencies and state-owned carriers from CIS markets. We are more confident than ever that Eurasia Com will be the de facto annual meeting place for anyone looking to do business in this region's telecoms sector. Now is a great time to tap into the potential of these high-growth, under-penetrated markets in a region where many states possess rich natural resources. Opportunities exist for telecoms technology vendors to gain privileged access to the strong list of VIPs we are assembling.

MVNO workshop adds value to Eurasia Com 2009

In previous posts here, I've mentioned the buzz of interest around Turkey's Telecommunications Board paving the way for MVNOs to enter the market. With this in mind, I am pleased to announce that a new feature of the 5th annual Eurasia Com conference (Istanbul, 31 March & 1 April 2009) will be a co-located workshop on the theme of exploiting opportunities created by this move by the regulator. The workshop will be led by Alex Bessen of the Bessen Group, a US-headquartered international management consulting practice to the mobile data industry.

Alex will be drawing on his company's MVNO Service Portfolio, MVNE Service Portfolio and HNO Service Portfolio so the workshop will be of interest to executives from all of these value chain actors.

While speaking with contacts in Turkey, I've heard expressed several times the opinion that regulators in nearby markets (i.e. CIS markets in the Caucasus region, such as Azerbaijan and Armenia) will probably watch developments in Turkey with interest ahead of making their own decisions about whether there is a case for licensing MVNOs. Given that our conference attracts delegates from these markets and from other former-Soviet states in Central Asia, as well as a good showing from Turkey, I am confident Alex will be sharing insights with a diverse group of workshop participants.

Eurasia Com: 2 out of 3 giant Russian cellcos say 'yes'

Following hot on the heels of our recent announcement about Russian cellco MegaFon sending its Deputy CEO to our 2009 Eurasia Com conference in Istanbul comes news of another important speaker confirmation.

Joining MegaFon's Alexey Nichiporenko in a Keynote Session Roundtable Discussion will be Oleg Raspopov, VP and Director of the Foreign Subsidiaries Business Unit at market-leading MTS (MobileTeleSystems). We expect the discussion to be a robust forum for the exchange of views about how best to exploit the remaining telecoms sector growth opportunities across the CIS markets of Central Asia and the Caspian region.

In the region we have defined as the target market for delegates for this particular conference, MTS has a presence in Armenia, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. MTS has furher CIS subsidiaries in Ukraine and Belarus.

Of Russia's 'big three' mobile players, only Vimpelcom has yet to confirm that a participant will take part in this discussion, which will take place on the morning of Tuesday 31 March, day one of the two-day Eurasia Com conference and exhibition. Naturally, we are in discussions with Vimpelcom about this and I remain confident about a positive outcome.

I will consider this Roundtable line-up to be perfectly formed if we are also able to add a high-level participant from TeliaSonera's Eurasia business unit. I will keep you posted.

Orange to enter Armenian market?

While conducting our research into developments across the Caspian Sea and Central Asia regions, we've dug out some interesting nuggets of information and opinion from a number of the individual markets concerned. Expect to see all of this reflected in the theme of the discussions at our annual Eurasia Com conference in Istanbul, 31st March & 1st April 2009.

One country we've found particularly fruitful in terms of research respondents is Armenia. One respondent there seems quite confident that the country's mobile market will be joined by a new player in the near future and that the new entrant will be Orange. The France Telecom cellular brand is not a total stranger to former Soviet territory, having established a foothold in Moldova, via the 2007 rebranding of Voxtel. Our friend in Armenia also felt that the entrant is likely to deploy WiMAX in additon to a GSM/W-CDMA network.

Armenia, home to fewer than 3.5 million people, is not a huge market to split between three mobile operators. In the context of the region around it, the country has also been quite well penetrated by the existing two MNOs, one of which is a part of the MTS empire. The other, Armentel (now branded Beeline) is the incumbent fixed-line operator as well as offering mobile services. Beeline, a well-known name across CIS markets, is the brand of the company's new owners, Vimpelcom of Russia.

I wonder, therefore, what any new entrant will be planning in terms of ways to grab market share from these two established players.

3G, MNP, MVNOs set to shake up Turkish mobile market?

Preparations are now well underway for our annual Eurasia Com conference, the next iteration of which will take place 31st March & 1st April 2009 at the Mövenpick Hotel in Istanbul. I am pleased that after two years of hosting this event in venues on the fringes of the world's third largest city, we are now able to hold the discussions and networking in a more central location. Next year's venue is in easy striking distance of the Taksim Square shopping and entertainment hub at the heart of Istanbul. This will make life easier for sponsors and exhibitors looking to entertain telco operator clients in the evenings and should boost the number of visitors we get from the many Turkish telco sector companies with headquarters in the city.

The conference is definitely a draw for major Turkish telcos. In the last two years, we've welcomed luminaries such as Tayfun Çataltepe (Chief Strategy/International Expansion Officer at Turkcell), Tulin Karabuk (Chief Investment Officer, Turkcell) and Mehmet Toros (COO, Türk Telekom). However, many of our sponsors support the event not only to reach out to Turkish companies, but also to tap into the high growth CIS markets of the Caspian Sea region and Central Asia. We therefore need to make the event attractive for visitors from these countries. While a pleasant downtown location is perhaps not the most important factor, it can't hurt - so I was happy to shower praise on our operations/venues people for securing this welcome upgrade.

I've been joined this week by a newly-hired Russian-speaking colleague who, as I write this, is on the phone gathering the lastest market intelligence from countries including Azerbijan, Georgia, Armenia and Kazakhstan. Every day, I am handed valuable nuggets of information which will definitely impact on the content and format of the Eurasia Com conference agenda. We are getting a clearer sense than ever before of the challenges and opportunities facing operators in these markets and I think we now know what to do in terms of creating a must-attend event which should gather the region's telcos in ever better numbers.

Meanwhile, I am catching up with contacts in Turkey, with a view to finding out which issues are keeping telco execs in that country awake at night. One of the most interesting conversations I've had this week was with someone at one of Turkey's mobile services distributors. Among the things I was told:

• Mobile Number Portability will be implemented very soon; my respondent felt that the country's 3rd placed mobile operator is welcoming this as a great opportunity to build market share through more aggressive competition on price.
• Two of Turkey's three MNOs are testing their 3G networks, which my respondent expects to go live in Q2 2009; my respondent predicts that Turkcell will move fastest to get the networking up and running, largely because of an urgent need to address network capacity issues.
• After some buzz of interest in the possible launch of MVNOs, there is now concern that the current tax regime is set to make the business case less attractive that once hoped.

The next time I get the opportunity to write something here, I aim to share a few snippet about what's happening across the wider Eurasia region our conference and exhibition will serve.

Catching up on developments across Eurasia

We will very shortly be getting to work on the arrangements for our 5th annual Eurasia Com conference and exhibition in Turkey. The event will take place 25-26 March 2009, with Istanbul being the host city for the third consecutive year, following on from an initial two years in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

For us, the term 'Eurasia' maps quite closely to TeliaSonera's use of this sometimes ambiguous word. With reference to the company's TeliaSonera Eurasia business area, the giant Scandinavian telco, like us, seems to use the term 'Eurasia' in the geopolitical sense, i.e. as a (neutral) way of referring to the post-Soviet states, in particular the Central Asian republics and the Transcaucasian republics.

So, our Eurasia Com conference, as well as attracting plenty of delegates from the host country's operators (Turkcell, Turk Telekom, Avea etc.), is really designed to offer networking and learning opportunities to execs from the service providers of Caspian states (Armenia, Azerbijan, Georgia) and 'the -stans' of Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan. Mongolian delegates have also shown up in pretty good numbers for the last two years.

We find that a number of tech vendors we speak with find this to be an interesting but challenging region. Growth potential is good: mobile markets are some way from reaching European-levels of penetration, 3G networks are not yet ubiquitous, wireline teledensity is quite low. However, my own experiences of developing contacts in this part of the world make me realise that it's not always easy for some companies to explore the possibilities and do business with the operators that are taking advantage of the growth opportunities. So we believe that our event offers a uniquely valuable one-stop shop for vendors looking to make improve their connections in this region.

I am therefore working to catch up with any interesting developments that have taken place across these markets since we last visited Istanbul in April this year. A notable one is TeliaSonera's integration of two previously separate mobile operators in Tajikistan, Indigo and Somoncom. These two companies were among the assets the Scandinavian telco acquired when it bought U.S.-based MCT Corp. back in 2007. MCT also had stakes in Coscom of Uzbekistan (now rebranded UCell) as well as a smaller stake in Roshan of Afghanistan. According to a Global Mobile Daily report last week, Ucell have just launched 3G services in the cities of Tashkent and Samarkand. This leaves Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan as the region's markets that had not reported W-CDMA subscriptions to the World Cellular Information Service by June of this year. Turkey's 3G licensing process has been much delayed so, overall, I expect Eurasia Com to be attended by a lot of delegates who have yet to gain extensive experience working in a market where 3G services are available. If that translates into pent-up demand to learn from colleagues who do have useful experiences and insights to offer, we should see very lively networking and discussions.