... and now for good news from.... Europe?

In the context of this global economic slowdown, is it very surprising that someone who is involved in delivering audiences of telecoms operator execs to paying sponsors from tech vendors has dedicated recent blog entries to digging out good news about new licenses and new network deployments? The good news I've found has come from emerging markets and a recurrent trend, which I reflected on earlier this week, has been MENA region-based groups taking advantage of the good deals on offer in the current climate.

Yesterday's Telecompaper newsletter, however, came with reasonably positive news from a telco whose footprint is largely confined to Europe. This concerns T-Mobile, whose CEO Hamid Akhavan has told the Netherlands-based news and research house that the cellco "has yet to see a direct impact on its results from the economic slowdown and expects to maintain its performance in 2009."

Akhavan told Telecompaper that the group "is focused on growing service revenues, while maintaining its profit margins [and that] growth will come from innovative services such as its mobile data service Web’n’walk and new data-driven phones such as Apple’s iPhone and the G1 Android handset." However, in contrast to the expansionist agenda of Middle Eastern telecoms groups, for T-Mobile International "mergers and acquisitions are not on the agenda at the moment, due to the high cost of capital, according to the CEO."

T-Mobile International is currently present in only one non-European market, the USA. In February 2008, the US operation extended its coverage to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands via the acquisition of SunCom Wireless, an operator owith more than 1.1 million customers across these territories and the mainland US states of North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Georgia.

In Europe, T-Mobile's expansion from its German base has largely been eastwards. Aside from Dutch and UK operations, the T-Mobile footprint has spread over time to Austia and into the former Warsaw Pact countries and parts of former Yugoslavia. Both with Informa Telecoms & Media and in other roles, I have been closely involved in setting up CEE region networking, discussion and exhibition events in the telecoms space. In doing so, over more than five years I have had watched a number of T-Mobile rebranding exercises in this territory.

While we have decided that a CEE-themed event is not longer an important element of the Com World Series, we continue to provide networking and discussion opportunities in this part of Europe, albeit in an online setting. Our thriving CEE Com LinkedIn group is a useful forum for finding new contacts in the region and joining them in useful discussions. If you do business in Central and Eastern Europe, I would urge you to join up.

Turk Telekom to grow business into Macedonia?

Looking back over some of the stories which popped up while I was away on holiday, I noticed that Global Mobile Daily picked up news of the Turkish incumbent fixed-line operator's interest in acquiring the 2nd-placed MNO in the small market of Macedonia (population approx 2 million). I am not clear to what extent any new owner (other interested parties seem to include Telekom Austria and Telekom Slovenije) would be able to grow the business. In addition to the Balkan country being a market of limited size, it is one for which our WCIS reports mobile penetration as 112.17% as of September 2008. Moreover, first-placed T-Mobile has established a commanding lead in terms of market share. According to WCIS, the Deutsche Telekom-aligned cellco owns 67.88% of subscriptions versus market shares of 32.13% and 12.16% for Cosmofon and VIP respectively.

VIP is part of the mobilkom austria group, itself a subsidiary of Telekom Austria - so if the Austrian incumbent's reported interest in Cosmofon is for real, I would assume that they would be thinking in terms of consolidating the Macedonian market down to two players.

Cosmofon's current owner is the Cosmote group, a company controlled by Greek incumbent carrier OTE. Assuming that the Greek group welcomes the interest being shown in its Macedonian outpost, this seems to represent another retreat from an East European market, OTE having not long quit Armenia. OTE sold its interest in Armentel, that country's then-monopolist wireline carrier (and associated mobile business) to Vimpelcom of Russia in late 2006.

If the Cosmofon story has played out by the end of March, and if Turk Telekom prevails, I daresay delegates at our Eurasia Com event in Istanbul will be keen to ask the company's CEO Dr. Paul Doany where the acquisition fits into his broader strategy.

US cellular pioneer urges US carriers to go (back) to emerging markets

There seem to be some interesting messages in John Stanton's speech at last week's CTIA Wireless IT and Entertainment show in San Francisco. Stanton's profile is such that his comments are bound to hit the headlines, as with this write-up from the Register. Stanton was co-founder of pioneering US wireless carrier McCaw Cellular. Cade Metz, the Register's man at the event in San Francisco, says that Stanton "questioned the sanity" of the T-Mobile US, Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel CEOs who had "spent the morning discussing their gradual transition to... networks that accept any device and any application".

Stanton articulated the view that this approach is tantamount to making the mobile operator an access provider, stating that access is (or is fast becoming) a commodity business. He argues that "if you become a pure access technology, in a saturated environment, you’re ceding yourself to growing at the rate of the economy." Stanton feels that big European and Asian carriers are "already limited by economic growth.... and US carriers are well on their way to the same fate."

Metz reports Stanton's two suggested remedies for this. Firstly, US carriers need to "own significant content", something they have "essentially ceded... to the Googles". Secondly, Stanton invited US telcos to follow his lead by investing abroad.

The first point prompted a number of incredulous responses on the Register's comments page, mostly focused on how carriers worldwide have not fared well with a walled garden approach to mobile content. I can only add that in 6+ years of attending telecoms sector conferences and talking to telco execs, I've sensed more and more people coming around to the view MNOs are best advised to be good citizens in a multimedia ecosystem which involves content owners, aggregators, distributors etc. all getting their slice of the cake in exchange for bearing some of the risk around developing new products.

Stanton now oversees the Trinity Partnership, which invests in wireless-related companies and runs various international mobile networks, including Neuvatel PCS (Bolivia), Comcel Haiti. These two companies operate in markets where mobile penetration stood at, respectively, 45.11% and 37.29% by June 2008, according to Informa Telecoms & Media's WCIS. Clearly, there is a lot more room to grow here than in saturated Europe and near-saturated North America, hence Stanton's advice to his compatriots.

It's heartening to see someone so prominent talking up emerging telecoms markets as a smart bet. Here at Com World Series HQ, we also believe that developing markets worldwide are where the action is for telcos and their suppliers. We enjoy navigating the challenges of connecting these two groups in locations as diverse as Istanbul, Rio de Janeiro and Abuja, Nigeria.

While doing so, I've certainly observed that European and Middle Eastern telcos have a collectively much bigger presence in emerging markets than US companies. The latter seem to have been in retreat for some time. For example, in the few years I've covered telecoms markets in Eastern Europe, I've seen Metromedia International Group dwindle from a collection of cellular and broadcast radio assets around Russia, Kazakhstan and elsewhere. I believe the company's only holding in that region now is Georgian cellco Magticom. In South America, US household names such as Verizon and BellSouth have been divesting assets since earlier this decade.

Having not long returned from our Americas Com conference in Rio de Janeiro, and having toured a few South American countries earlier this year, I am struck by the strong position of Spain's Telefonica, Mexico's America Movil and, to a lesser extent, European players such as Telecom Italia, Portugal Telecom and Millicom International Cellular in the region.

John Stanton said last week "the major American companies have essentially retrenched, which means scale is going to be ceded to foreign companies." In the regions I cover, it feel like that has already happened.

Vodafone stake to grow in CEE region's largest market?

My team defines CEE (Central & Eastern Europe) as a bloc of markets consisting of the three Baltic States, the Visegrad Group of countries at the heart of Europe, the two most recent EU entrants and the numerous small states of the Balkans. For the purposes of organising our telecoms industry region-specific conference/exhibition events, we align states such as Ukraine and Belarus with the Russian Federation for our Russia & CIS Com property.

So, in the context of the CEE region as we define it, Poland is the largest market by some margin. Telecoms news coming out of that country is therefore something in which I always take an interest - and my interest is sharpened by the special connection I feel to Poland. I spent four very happy and rewarding years living in Kielce and Kraków back in the early 1990s. I made many last friendships along the way and grabbed the opportunity to explore the country and its neighbours pretty thoroughly.

So my eye was caught late last week by reports of Vodafone looking to up its stake in Polish MNO Polkomtel. Even if this deal does go through, I am unclear whether the various shareholders would be thinking in terms of the Vodafone brand name being used by the operator, whose current brand name is 'Plus'. If this is not the case, Plus/Polkomtel would be set to remain the only one of Poland three longest-established MNOs using a local brand name. PTK Centertel has been known as Orange Polska since 2005, ditching its former Idea brand name in favour of harmonisation with the mobile brands of parent company France Telecom. I've also heard it said that Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa will drop its current 'Era' brand fairly soon, moving more obviously into the T-Mobile fold.

These developments are likely to get an airing at our CEE Com event in Prague, 17-18 September. Remember that those of you who represent a telecoms operator/service provider may attend free of charge.