More on (mobile social) networking in Istanbul

Last week I had the great pleasure of visiting the shiny new Microsoft MEA office in Istanbul, which was the venue for this month's local Mobile Monday meeting. Part of the pleasure was being reminded of the warm hospitality I always experience when meeting telecoms people from Turkey. The pre-meeting drinks, nibbles and chatter session yielded lots of interesting new contacts. Among these were representatives of the country's three mobile operators and owners/directors of a number of value-added services companies. Mobile banking solutions seemed to be quite a well represented area so perhaps this is something set to gain traction in Turkey.

Ostensibly, I was there to speak on behalf of Informa Telecoms & Media, making a presentation on the theme of mobile social networking. This was drawn from a comprehensive report on that subject, an updated second edition of which is currently being prepared. With a 25-minute time slot, I was only able to offer a few of the ideas covered in the report. A number of those present were kind enough to indicate that they had found the presentation helpful. Judge for yourself. Natali Yeşilbahar, the Mobile Monday Istanbul organiser, has made the slides available here. If you want the notes which I used to provide examples and expanded comments, please let me know any time.

Mine was one of two speeches made that evening, the other being offered by Mehmet Arslantunalı, General Manager of Mobilife magazine, a telco sector publication in the local vernacular. Mehmet's presentation was also made in Turkish so I was not able to gain from it. Those of you who do understand that language are invited to have a look at the slides and fill me in on what I missed!

I understand that Microsoft is a new member of the roster of companies that have hosted Mobile Mobile Monday Istanbul meetings. I believe that the privilege usually falls to one or other of the MNOs - Turkcell, Avea or Vodafone. I am pleased that Informa Telecoms & Media will be joining this exalted company in April, at which time we will be providing the meeting facilities and laying on the catering. The venue will be the city's Mövenpick Hotel, which will also be the home of this year's Eurasia Com conference and exhibition - our annual gathering of senior telecoms people not only from Turkey but also from the CIS markets of the Caspian and Central Asian regions (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan etc.). Natali was kind enough to allow me drum up further local support for the event.

A number of the meetings which I arranged during the rest of my short stay should have a positive impact on the conference element of the Eurasia Com event. One which is very straightforward is the addition of a further speaker from Turkcell. Given the extensive coverage given to the issue of MVNOs possibly hitting the Turkish market in the near future, I am delighted to welcome Dr. Deniz Tunçalp to the panel of speaker. Deniz is in charge of the market-leading cellco's discussions with prospective MVNOs and as well as outlining his thoughts on barriers and opportunities for potential virtual operators in Turkey, he has offered his assistance with encouraging these companies to attend. It is my understanding that these players will come from an interesting mix of non-telecoms brands.

All in all, another useful and enjoyable trip to Istanbul - but I still haven't found time to do more than scratch the surface in terms of really enjoying the city's countless tourist sights, historical treasures and entertainment. Next time, I hope...

More on the optimism expressed at GSM>3G Middle East

After considerable quantities of roast Turkey, mince pies etc., it's time to round up some more of what was discussed at our recent GSM>3G Middle East event in Dubai. The focus here is on the second day's proceedings.

One thing we took away from both days' discussions was the widely expressed sense of optimism that the Middle East's telcos will weather the economic downturn relatively unscathed. Day two opened with a speech from Dr Marwan Alahmadi, CEO of Zain's Saudi operation, who described the new entrant's successes to date - and was bullish about the way ahead.

Great confidence was also expressed by speakers from both FRiENDi mobile and Majan Telecom, two companies looking to thrive as MVNOs on the Omani market. The afternoon saw a robust presentation from Mobinil on the ever more pressing necessity to provide a dashboard of VAS to both protect current and expand future revenues. Judging by the enthusiastic questions directed at the Egyptian cellco's Commercial VP Guillaume van Gaver, this presentation struck a chord with a receptive audience.

For my part, I moderated sessions whose broad theme was around extending the availability and improving the affordability of communications services in lower ARPU markets with less easily addressable demand. Among the speakers in this session, it was great to meet Khaled Khorshid, currently the Regional COO of Zain Sudan. After sharing useful insights about how to grow a successful mobile operator, Khaled mentioned that his personal journey is about to take him to another outpost of the Zain empire - he is being dispatched to the Nigerian operation. Khaled was kind enough to volunteer to join the panel of speakers at the Com World Series event which takes place in that country's capital so I have encouraged my colleague who covers Africa to take up the offer. So look out for Khaled among the speaker line-up for West & Central Africa Com in Abuja in June 2009.

The Dubai event was enjoyable and rewarding for me - and I am looking forward hopefully to reading positive feedback from delegates early in the new year. The work leading to the creation of the 2009 Middle East event begins now.

MNOs aim to retain migrant worker customers via overseas MVNOs

The ever-indispensable Global Mobile Daily reminded me yesterday that Suriname's incumbent telco Telesur (most of whose top management team I've had the pleasure of meeting at previous interactions of our Americas Com event in Rio) has launched a prepaid MVNO in the Netherlands. This is a move to retain the business of around 330,000 ex-pat Surinamese living and working in Holland. The MVNO will work in partnership with retail chains Kruidvat and Trekpleister for distribution of its mobile services. The service will be enabled by MVNE Teleena.

This model is not new - MVNOs aimed at specific ethnic segments or specific groups of migrant workers. Also tried and tested is the idea of the dominant mobile player from one country seeking to monetise its natural ability to market services to fellow countrymen who happen to be located abroad. A case which interests me is that of the German MVNO mobi gsm, an offering of Millenicom, a company owned by European Telecommunication Holding, part of the Çukurova Group, controllers of Turkey's leading MNO Turkcell.

Turkcell, along with competitors Vodafone and Avea, must now decide on how to approach the matter of MVNOs going to market on its home turf. Along with MNP and 3G services finally becoming a reality in 2009, MVNOs are one of the hotter topics of discussionon the Turkish telecoms scene, which is why the subject will get extended coverage at our Eurasia Com conference in Istanbul, 31 March & 1 April. Two companies looking to get involved as MVNEs will be represented on the panel of speakers - handset/SIM retailer Vegatel and the Turkish arm of pan-European MVNE/MVNO Effortel. In the last couple of days I've also heard from Jacques Bonifay, CEO of Transatel, another cross-border MVNO and MVNE. I'm pleased to report that developments in Turkey seem to have picqued Jacques' interest enough to make the trip down to Istanbul and join the discussions.

To ensure that no one present can possibly fail to go away armed with lots of useful insights on MVNO/MVNE and HNO (host network operator) business models, we have arranged for MVNO guru Alex Bessen to offer a compelling, co-located workshop at the event, offering case studies and practical guidance.

MVNO workshop adds value to Eurasia Com 2009

In previous posts here, I've mentioned the buzz of interest around Turkey's Telecommunications Board paving the way for MVNOs to enter the market. With this in mind, I am pleased to announce that a new feature of the 5th annual Eurasia Com conference (Istanbul, 31 March & 1 April 2009) will be a co-located workshop on the theme of exploiting opportunities created by this move by the regulator. The workshop will be led by Alex Bessen of the Bessen Group, a US-headquartered international management consulting practice to the mobile data industry.

Alex will be drawing on his company's MVNO Service Portfolio, MVNE Service Portfolio and HNO Service Portfolio so the workshop will be of interest to executives from all of these value chain actors.

While speaking with contacts in Turkey, I've heard expressed several times the opinion that regulators in nearby markets (i.e. CIS markets in the Caucasus region, such as Azerbaijan and Armenia) will probably watch developments in Turkey with interest ahead of making their own decisions about whether there is a case for licensing MVNOs. Given that our conference attracts delegates from these markets and from other former-Soviet states in Central Asia, as well as a good showing from Turkey, I am confident Alex will be sharing insights with a diverse group of workshop participants.

Prospects for MVNOs in Latin American markets

A Cellular News story this week focused on the prospect of more competitive market conditions in Peru. Proinversión, the country's agency for private investment promotion is apparently planning to auction spectrum for the cities of Lima and Callao and make further spectrum available nationwide. As far as I can make out, this will open the way for a third GSM mobile operator. Currently, Peruvians are offered a choice between Claro (backed by Mexico's America Movil) and Movistar Peru, part of Telefonica's extensive Latin America footprint. These two operators currently have 39.22% and 57.31% of the country's mobile subscriptions, according to the Informa Telecoms & Media WCIS database. The remaining 3.47% are owned by Nextel Peru, an iDEN operator owned by NII Holdings of the USA. Whenever I visit Argentina or Brazil, I can't help noticing that almost every taxi I take is driven by a subscriber of the local Nextel-branded operator. The drivers routinely use the Push-to-talk over Cellular functionality of their handsets to keep in touch with their colleagues. It is my understanding that the various Nextel iDEN operators around Latin America focus their efforts on this and other business applications rather than attempting to compete aggressively for consumer business. I daresay, therefore, that in the Peruvian market, the local Nextel operator would be least seriously affected by the entry of a new GSM player.

While calling contacts around Central Asia and the Caspian region this week (in preparation for our Eurasia Com conference), we have been asking for views on how much more the various markets are likely to become. We keep hearing opinions about the 'optimum' number of mobile operators for any given market. I wonder, therefore, if a third GSM operator in Peru would take the number of competitors up to or beyond the 'optimum' level. I suppose it depends on who you ask.

One opinion, reported in the Cellular News piece, comes from José F. Otero, President of Signals Telecom Consulting and the author of a report on the Peruvian market. Otero notes that "any new mobile operator making its entrance into the Peruvian market will be faced with a variety of difficulties. The most important among these are an estimated 70% mobile telephony penetration rate (by the end of 2008) and the low level of personal income of a large part of the local population. First of all, a potential new operator not only would have to compete against well known brand names like Claro, Movistar and Nextel. It would also have to deploy a network in a rural areas having irregular topography that would increase infrastructure costs in regions having very low levels of disposable income. This means it would take longer to achieve a positive return on the investments made.”

In the article, there is speculation about "a new competitor like the Brazilian operator Oi" potentally looking at entering the Peruvian mobile marketplace via "an MVNO type plan"

When studying the markets across Latin America and attempting to keep track of all the various service providers, the absence of MVNOs has stood out for me. At our recent Americas Com conference in Rio de Janeiro, I heard conflicting view about when/if MVNOs would enter the Brazilian market. Some delegates seemed to feel that the country's regulator, ANATEL, was some way from enabling prospective virtual service providers to compete for business with Brazil's MNOs. However, one high-level executive from one of the operators told me he felt that MVNOs would be making their market debut in Brazil "quite soon."

A spot of Googling this morning revealed that Sixbell Nekotec Solutions, a "a leading Latin American corporation developing value added software and service systems and system integration" has ambitions around entering the Brazilian market as an MVNO targetting low income subscribers.

In the context of this uncertainty in, I was interested to see someone from Claro Brasil (America Movil) asking about the impact of MVNOs on Latin American markets to members of the Americas Com LinkedIn group. The most interesting answer so far comes from a Regulatory Policy official at the Mexican regulator COFETEL, who writes: "There is no specific ruling and/or regulation in Mexico for MVNOs. As a matter of fact, if you are already a carrier that has a license to offer services, you only need a confirmation from the authority to resale unused capacity of other carriers, as reselling for licensees is permitted by the Law. In the case of Maxcom (which is a licensed carrier) they resale unused capacity of Telefonica Movistar. In the case of parties wanting to resale services and that do not have a license, they need to follow a procedure to obtain a permit for reselling. There is a specific ruling for ILD resellers issued in 2004, but the current policy in Cofetel is that permits for any service will be granted if the applicants comply with the law and specific regulations."

My sense is that at the next Americas Com conference (Rio de Janeiro, May 2009), more time will be spent discussing MVNOs - both on stage and offline in the networking sessions. We are feeling bullish here about the prospects for a strong event, having strengthened the team working on the research and speaker acquisition parts of the project. Much of that activity will now be run from our sister company in Sao Paolo. I will be welcoming their team leader here in London next week and ensuring that our Brazilian colleagues have everything they need to make Americas Com the must-attend discussion and networking forum for telco execs from all over Latin America in 2009 and beyond.

Eurasia Com 2009: welcome aboad, our first confirmed speaker

We would not ordinarily be confirming speakers for a March/April conference quite as early as this. With Eurasia Com 2009 scheduled for the last day of March and first day of April, my current focus is on catching up with the latest developments in Turkey, the event's host country and in the numerous former Soviet Republics of the Caspian and Central Asia regions, from where we draw a good number of our delegates. We are digesting all that is going on across these markets as well as asking the region's telco executives what our conference must feature in terms of participants, discussion themes and format in order to worthy of their expenditure on travel and time out of the office.

However, of the people I've spoken to thus far as part of this process, one stands out as an especially helpful and insightful research respondent. Cenk Soyak is the General Manager of MVNO/MVNE Effortel's presence in Turkey. Having earlier got the sense from other Turkish research respondents that the country's mobile sector's three hottest topics were MNP, the long-delayed arrival of 3G services and the business case for MVNOs, I was naturally keen to catch up with someone right at the centre of the discussions around the last of these. Cenk keeps a blog (in Turkish) to track what's going on in Turkey's MVNO space and was kind enough to provide an English language summary of many of the themes covered. As well as offering invaluable guidance on this topic, and on other developments in Turkey, I knew right away that Cenk would be an authoritative and lively conference speaker. I am therefore delighted to announce here that he has agreed to join the panel of speakers we will be building for our Eurasia Com conference.

My Russian-speaking colleague currently conducting research covering CIS markets has also had some really useful conversations, many with CxO-level people within a diverse range of telcos - from MNOs to state-owned incumbent wireline carriers. A number of these respondents have indicated a willingness to join the speaker panel in Istanbul, so I anticipate positive developments soon. If your organisation is serious about doing business with the telcos of this part of the world, I am confident we can save you a lot of time and money by putting you among the group we plan to assemble in Turkey in the Spring.

Nawras CEO joins GSM>3G Middle East speaker panel

I was delighted to hear from Omani MNO Nawras this morning, confirming the participation of CEO Ross Cormack on the panel of speakers at our GSM>3G Middle East TOWARDS A BROADBAND WORLD event in Dubai this December. Ross has been a loyal and enthusiastic supporter of the conference and it will be a pleasure to welcome him and his colleagues once again.

Since Ross participated at the 2007 version of the event, Nawras have gone first-to-market with 3.5G services in Oman. Nawras competes in the cellular space with the mobile business unit of incumbent carrier Omantel. Oman Mobile has yet to deploy a 3G network, but in February this year it was reported that Huawei had undercut Ericsson and Nokia Siemens networks to win the Oman Mobile contract for the building out UMTS coverage. I notice that this report describes Oman Mobile as "one of the few cellcos in the Middle East yet to build a 3G network'. I beg to differ. Referring to the invaluable World Cellular Information Service from Informa Telecoms & Media, I can see that 3G networks are as yet absent in all of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. We expect all of these countries to be well represented at our December conference, as well as good-sized contingents from South Asian, North African and West African markets where mobile carriers are associated with Middle Eastern shareholders/owners. So I have proposed that Ross Cormack speak on the theme of gaining competitive advantage through the first-to-market deployment of a 3G network. That ought to be useful for delegates from those countries.

I am also mindful of the fact that the Omani market has recently opened up to MVNOs and mobile resellers, so a possible alternative presentation topic for Ross would be to look at how far market liberalisation and the emergence of this kind of new entrant compels established players to sharpen their focus on understanding and maximising customer value.

Two of the MVNOs concerned, FRiENDi mobile and Majan Telecom are already confirmed participants at our conference. The former will be represented by Fayez Husseini (SVP, Business Development), the latter by the company CEO Niklas Nielsen. So we are well on the way to having the Omani telecoms sector very well represented at the conference.